WHAT IF — From early entry to a major spot exchange
Status: Historical comparison and adjustable concept model, 16 October 2026. English main version; German version. The interactive English page and German page now use this method.
The question the story must answer
The relevant journey for an early buyer is early trading → major spot listing → price after listing. Starting the calculation only at the listing omits an important part of the historical move.
| Coin | Earliest tracked rate | First major spot daily close | Highest spot price in first 30 days after listing | Early → listing close | Early → 30-day high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FARTCOIN | $0.0101 | Kraken $1.4645, 23 Jan 2025 | Kraken $2.4997, 23 Jan 2025 | 145.0× / +14,400% | 247.5× / +24,650% |
| PNUT | $0.00335 | Binance $0.3908, 11 Nov 2024 | Binance $2.50, 14 Nov 2024 | 116.7× / +11,566% | 746.3× / +74,527% |
| ACT | $0.0150 | Binance $0.4467, 11 Nov 2024 | Binance $0.95, 14 Nov 2024 | 29.8× / +2,878% | 63.3× / +6,233% |
The earliest rate is CoinLore's own “first exchange rate detected” field for each coin. This is a uniform, independently recorded comparison anchor, not a verified first Pump.fun fill. CoinLore's first yearly/monthly open is different from its first detected rate, so the table deliberately uses only the latter. Kraken/Binance first daily close is used consistently for the major-listing stage. The 30-day figure is the highest individual spot price printed after that listing, not a guaranteed selling price. “Major spot listing” does not mean the token's first exchange anywhere.
Formula: multiple = later price / early rate; gain % = (multiple − 1) × 100. Example: FARTCOIN $1.4645 / $0.0101 = 145×, hence +14,400% to the first Kraken daily close. The Binance/Kraken opening prints were PNUT $0.1047, ACT $0.0196 and FARTCOIN $2.34; the opening trade and first daily close are different measurements. The page uses the close to put all three listing days on the same footing.
WHAT IF scenario from an entry made now
The page's calculator begins at a hypothetical entry market cap, not at a presumed actual Pump.fun purchase. With a fixed 1 billion-token supply and unchanged SOL/USD, its default inputs give:
| Stage | Hypothetical market cap | Unit price | Multiple from $100k entry | Gain from entry | 3 SOL mark-to-market equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $100,000 | $0.0001 | 1× | 0% | 3 SOL |
| Major spot listing | $50 million | $0.05 | 500× | +49,900% | 1,500 SOL |
| Later scenario | $250 million | $0.25 | 2,500× | +249,900% | 7,500 SOL |
These are editable assumptions and arithmetic, not an exchange qualification threshold or a forecast. A real 3 SOL Pump.fun buy changes the bonding-curve price and receives an average fill; its actual token amount depends on the execution, fees and contemporaneous SOL/USD rate. A market cap is unit price × supply, not cash that the project receives. The page therefore calls the 3 SOL figures mark-to-market equivalents under the simplified model. Pump's own bonding-curve guide describes the price impact.
Founder NFT funnel assumption
Kai's base case is now 100,000 holder addresses × 50% story contact × 35% site visit × 20% NFT purchase × 1.25 NFTs per buyer = 4,375 NFTs (43.75% of a planned 10,000 collection). The page's sliders remain editable. This is a marketing hypothesis motivated by a buyer's interest in understanding a coin's story, not measured behavior; wallet addresses, people and reachable contacts are distinct. For a real campaign, the useful proof would be source-tagged profile clicks, site visits, wallet connections and on-chain mints.
Source trail
- Early observed prices: CoinLore FARTCOIN, PNUT, ACT. CoinLore says it gathers its own exchange data and identifies the first rate it detected.
- Major spot chronology: Binance PNUT + ACT announcement; Kraken FARTCOIN listing and Kraken's dated asset record.
- Original venue candles: Binance PNUT, Binance ACT, Kraken FARTCOIN. First 30 daily candles checked on 16 October 2026.
Open data gap: An independently authenticated, transaction-level first Pump.fun purchase and its effective USD price was not obtained for these three wallets/tokens. The historical table must therefore retain the “earliest tracked rate” label. It must not be relabelled as exact launch-to-listing investment performance.